Spring breeze
The euro’s decline accelerates A welcome but mild boost for French growth The euro’s slide over the past year has been good news for eurozone growth, especially in France where the economy has...
View ArticleVolatility dominates
Dovish Fed prompts markets to rally 10y Treasury yield back below 2% The rise in the US dollar fades News impacts markets more so than before. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee created a big...
View ArticleUS: Disappointing job
US: Disappointing job Eurozone: A new kind of divide US: Another string of bad news Survey and activity data have been suffering from a mix of bad weather, strikes and an expensive dollar. But the...
View ArticleJittery markets
Jittery markets Patiently waiting for a sign Target 2 positions: better but... Since summer 2014, two developments focused attention: dropping oil prices and the appreciating dollar. After a constant...
View ArticleNegative rates, positive implications?
The 3M Euribor falls below zero German Bunds deliver negative yields up to 7 year maturity In the euro zone, interest rates have moved each day a little further into negative territory. In the money...
View ArticleApril Blues
US data weak Rates “lift-off” is still months away Fed cautious about economic development Next employment report will be key There is what they try to express. There is what you read. And there is...
View ArticleRisk migration
The eurozone awakening from a long sleep Oil prices recovering Sharp correction in bond market With the recovery firming up in the eurozone (we expect growth of 1.8% in 2015) and economic risk...
View ArticleTowards a shift in the balance of growth engines?
Foreign trade makes a negative contribution to German growth Domestic demand continues going strong Confirmation of the eurozone recovery in Q1 (+0.4% q/q after +0.3% in Q4 2014) is good news on more...
View ArticleUnited we shall stand
Global manufacturing PMI essentially flat in May at 51.2 Rebounds here are offset by setbacks there Since summer 2013, global manufacturing growth is essentially flat. The global manufacturing PMI from...
View ArticleSovereign yields on the rise
Sovereign yields rise continue in the Eurozone M. Draghi emphasised that markets should get used to higher volatility Eurozone sovereign yields have risen sharply these past two weeks after the...
View ArticleGreek negotiations on the verge of rupture
June 22: the last of the “last chance” summits Greeks banks under pressure In a nutshell, Thursday’s Eurogroup meeting served mainly to confirm that negotiations have reached a standstill between...
View ArticleGreek countdown
On July 5th Greece will say if it agrees to the terms set by international creditors It will determine the future of the country The significant market reaction (see adjacent table) shows how much of...
View ArticleA "No" that finally means "Yes"?
The Greek government makes proposals that could finally resolve the current impasse But the loss of time has been very costly Greece’s chances of staying within the eurozone seemed fairly slim after...
View ArticleGrexin!
Greece and the other EMU States avoid divorce… But at high costs for both sides At the eurozone summit of 12 July 2015, at the very last minute Greece was finally allowed to stay in the European...
View ArticleEurope, from Athens to London
The Greek situation advances The Juncker Plan too Obama urges the British to stay in the EU Once again, the headlines are riveted on Europe. The Greek Parliament approved the second round of measures...
View ArticleOne is playing for time, the other is insisting
The Fed is postponing the first hike Is it an opportunity for the ECB to do more? The Fed is ready to wait before deciding for the first hike, but the question is how long. Our forecast remains that a...
View ArticleCatalonia on the road to independence?
Regional elections in Catalonia will be held on Sunday 27 September in Catalonia Pro-independence parties lead in the polls Next Sunday's regional elections in Catalonia have assumed the role of an...
View ArticleLess Buoyant Tendencies
Given the slowdown in the emerging economies, we are lowering our estimates slightly The United States maintains honourable growth; Europe is no longer accelerating Without going so far as to predict...
View ArticleGerman economy seems to have come to a halt!
Industrial output declined in August Orders outside of the euro zone plummet German growth slowed over the summer. The first statistics for August confirm this observation. Whereas foreign trade was...
View ArticleChina, some debt pay-back, and still many assets…
In China, the risk associated to capital outflows is limited The country remains one of the biggest net creditor in the world While the capital account opening process and liberalisation of the...
View ArticleCompleting the banking union
Propositions for the third pillar Eurozone confidence up in October The first phase of the EMU completion process was launched in July, and the European Commission has followed up by presenting a...
View ArticleFrance, the improvement continues
In France, the improvement in business confidence continues The number of job-seekers has posted a first significant fall The overall picture from the latest economic indicators in France is...
View ArticleFriday Afternoon Fever
US job statistics published on Friday afternoon were strong … …which should encourage the Fed to take action US employment figures were released on Friday afternoon. Altogether, 271,000 jobs were...
View ArticleFrance-Germany: is the gap narrowing?
Judging by initial estimates of national accounts, France's economy grew slightly faster than Germany's in the third quarter of 2014, i.e. by 1.4% annualised versus 1.3%. Detailed German figures are...
View ArticleGermany: no acceleration
Rebound continued in France... …but the pace of growth slowed in Germany While the rebound in growth continued in the third quarter in France (0.3% after 0% in Q2), the same cannot be said of Germany....
View ArticleHawkish easing
ECB easing fell short of markets’ expectations… …but should support the ongoing recovery This is a paradox: While the ECB unveiled new easing measures this Thursday, financial and monetary conditions...
View ArticleA rate hike, what else?
The Fed is about to bring to an end a 7-year period of ZIRP The incoming policy normalisation will likely be very gradual The United States is about to experience a rare event: on 16 December the...
View ArticleFluctuat nec mergitur
The German and French economies are withstanding headwinds quite well Their GDP growth should be up around 1.5% in 2016. The French business climate was expected to deteriorate following the 13...
View ArticleA cement story
The Chinese cement industry has fallen into recession With major consequences for world commodity prices When the first industrial revolution began in the 1760-80s, the United Kingdom had a population...
View ArticleLife On March?
Money policy will be reviewed And possibly reconsidered at the next meeting in March Unsurprisingly, the European Central Bank (ECB) held its monetary policy steady in January. Mario Draghi nonetheless...
View ArticleResilient households
US GDP growth slowed in Q4 Business investment and net export weigh on The Fed sends a dovish signal US GDP growth markedly slowed in the final quarter of 2015: +0.7% versus 2% in Q3 (quarterly...
View ArticleHesitant Oil Prices
■ Hesitant oil prices ■ Unnerved equity markets ■ Interest rates plunge, dragging down the dollar Jittery financial markets did not find any relief this week. Oil prices suddenly dropped after...
View ArticleDisproportionate sentence
Eurozone growth in line with expectations After Spain and Italy, Portugal is easing the fiscal pressure Financial turbulence has spread to the Eurozone and rekindled some pressure pushing up sovereign...
View ArticleWill it be enough?
Russia and Saudi Arabia strike a deal Financial markets calm down The focus shifts back to the ECB and Fed The downward revision by the OECD of its economic forecasts is a sobering reminder of how...
View ArticleA chillier feeling
World trade and GDP growth are running out of steam The IMF and OECD are calling for a joint effort This week the IMF has joined the OECD in calling for a joint effort to boost growth, as the...
View ArticleStructural policy: necessary yet difficult
Synergy with monetary and fiscal policies Positive impact on potential growth A slower pace of reforms lately The world economy is cooling so the heat is on about what should be done. The closing...
View ArticleA mixed picture keeps central banks in focus
Looking back at the first quarter from an economic perspective, the picture is very mixed. In China, slowdown concerns continue to dominate. In Japan, data have been lacklustre and there is a risk of a...
View ArticleBudless Spring
Rebound in world economic growth still expected in 2017 But constraints on potential growth and rising risks in emerging countries The IMF published this week updated economic forecasts. 2016 world...
View ArticleExplanations
Mario Draghi’s refutes criticism from Germany “Monetary policy has been the only policy in the last four years to support growth” Just six weeks after the ECB announced a series of large-scale...
View ArticleFrench growth beats expectations
Global Helicopter money. This tool to fight deflation corresponds to a money-financed fiscal stimulus. United States Déjà vu? GDP growth was disappointing in Q1 2016, but this was no surprise. Unlike...
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